Romney Gets Register Nod; Gingrich Sour

Register Editorial Board Decides to back Romney over Frontrunner Gingrich

Michael Rutledge | Drake University

On December 17 the Des Moines Register editorial board gave its endorsement to Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. The endorsement from the Register, while not game changing, might provide the credibility Romney needs to jumpstart his Iowa campaign.

“He stands out in the current field of Republican candidates,” wrote the Register board. “Rebuilding the economy is the nation’s top priority, and Romney makes the best case among the Republicans that he could do that.”

The Register had unsympathetic words for current Republican frontrunner and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, calling him, “Inept, partisan and undisciplined… He would alienate, not unite (Americans) if he reverts to the mean-spirited attacks he displayed as House Speaker.”

The Iowa Caucuses are set for January 3, and with skeletons flying out of their respective closets; candidates aren’t worrying about stepping on toes in order to galvanize the conservative base.

“I’m delighted The Des Moines Register, which is a solidly liberal newspaper, did not endorse me,” Gingrich said. “I think that indicates who the conservative in this race is.”

By distancing himself from the Register endorsement, Gingrich hopes to polarize the conservative base, which has been reluctant to embrace Romney.

Romney certainly appreciates the endorsement, but it hasn’t proved all that crucial in the past. The Register gave its nod to Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008, who finished well out of the lead in the Iowa Caucuses. Romney finished second in 2008, but spent $10 million and hundreds of hours campaigning across the state to do so. Romney, who is in no trouble of running out of cash (worth an estimated $200 million personally), has taken a less-is-more strategy, choosing to run campaign ads in Iowa only in the last few weeks leading up to the caucuses.

As of December 18, The New York Times has Ron Paul currently leading Iowa with 24% support; Romney is a close second with 20%. According to Gallup polls Newt Gingrich leads the field nationally with 28%, with Romney second at 24%.

Romney has traditionally done better in New England, where his brand of moderate conservatism and strong economic policy is popular. In New Hampshire Romney has 36% of the vote, with a healthy lead over Gingrich, who has 19%. Although the economy is the leading factor in the election, faith and family are still important issues for the conservative base. Romney scores behind Gingrich and Texas governor Rick Perry in both areas, even though Romney has been married to his wife Ann for 42 years and Gingrich is on his third wife. In the South and Midwest Romney’s Mormon faith is still a roadblock for many voters, pushing them towards Gingrich and Perry.

Regardless of who wins the Republican nomination, defeating President Barack Obama in a national election will be no easy task, endorsements or not. Although Obama is hovering between a 41-43% approval rating, he’s expected to raise up to $1 billion in fundraising, creating a reelection juggernaut that will be hard to topple. Vegas odds have Obama as a -150 favorite to win a second term, and he polls well against all of the Republican frontrunners (Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann and Paul) except for Romney. Odds of -150 simply means that a person would have to wager $150 of his or her own money in order to place a bet worth $100 (and yes, people are betting).

According to a recent Gallop poll the more moderate Romney fairs best in a head-to-head matchup against Obama, splitting the national vote 47% for Obama and 46% for Romney. Paired against Gingrich, Obama takes 50% of the vote compared to 44% for Gingrich. Romney’s strength in New England may not give him a leg up on Obama, however, due to the fact that every Northeastern state save New Hampshire have sided with the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992 (Bill Clinton vs. George Bush Sr.).

Perhaps Republicans feel that Romney gives them the best chance to steal votes from the traditional Democratic bastion of the Northeast, if so, they had better make sure Gingrich doesn’t take the nomination and solidify Obama as a two-term president.